Expected, but not good

"Last week, manager Charlie Manuel said Polanco would hit second, the spot in the lineup he has occupied for most of his career. He hit .285 with 10 home runs and 72 RBIs last season."

That is not bad. The bad part is, however, that Shane Victorino will likely move down to the seventh spot in the order. Jimmy Rollins is coming off a season where his OBP was .296, and he isn't getting any younger. The .296 will certainly rise, but his career OBP is .329; Polanco had a career low in OBP last year at .331 and that will almost certainly rise as well due to his low BABIP in 2009.

Victorino is coming off two consecutive years over .350, and is career OBP is .347. There is no question who the lead off man shoud be in 2010, but it seems that he will be hitting 7th. Unfortunately, the Phils will probably score fewer runs than they should this year.

Carcillo vs. Gaborik

Apparently, a lot of people are taking offense to Carcillo fighting the Rangers' Marian Gaborik the other night. They site Carcillo's "out of control behavior" as "unacceptable". Here's what happened. A scrum broke out after the play near the Flyers' net. OK Tollefsen was going back and forth with someone after the play, and the other players quickly grabbed hold of an opponent, as often happens during scrums after whistles. Dan Carcillo grabbed Gaborik and then their momentum carried them to the back boards.

I'm pretty sure it's every instigator's job to get under the skin of the opponent's skilled players in an attempt to get them off the ice (Avery later attempted to get Carter to fight, but to no avail). So Carcillo's grabbing Gaborik is nothing out of the ordinary.

The following is a numbered timeline of the events as follows:

1. Gaborik threw a couple rabbit punches to Carcillo's face with his gloves still on (not a good idea to rile up Carcillo if you don't want to fight).

2. Carcillo held him at a distance while returning the favor.

3. Gaborik DROPPED HIS GLOVES FIRST, initiating a fight.

4. Carcillo follows by dropping his gloves and Gaborik.

Hey Marian, if you don't want to fight I suggest you don't drop your gloves. If you start a fight I sincerely hope you don't call out the other player by saying, "[Carcillo's] one of those guys that doesn't really care about the puck. He just runs around and that's what he does."

Watch for yourselves.

Dan is the Man

Preliminary results

Note: My original post included just the Pens, Flyers, and Red Wings. I will just make additions as I go along and post a comment about additions

Ok. I have gone through the schedule of 3 NHL teams (Penguins, Flyers, and Red Wings), and have compiled some rudimentary stats.

Times team plays opponent coming off game on previous night (did not count if both teams played previous night):

Penguins-19

Flyers-14

Red Wings-15

Blackhawks-12

Times team plays at home vs. opponent coming off a road game on previous night (only if team had off previous night):

Penguins-5

Flyers-6

Red Wings-7

Blackhawks-4

Time team plays consecutive nights:

Penguins-10 (Oct-4, Nov-1, Jan-2, Mar-2, Apr-1)

Flyers-14 (Oct-2, Nov-3, Dec-3, Jan-2, Feb-1, Mar-2, Apr-1)

Red Wings- 12 (Nov-3, Dec-3, Jan-2, Feb-1, Mar-2, Apr-1)

Blackhawks- 18 (Oct-2, Nov-3, Dec-3, Jan-3, Feb-2, Mar-4, Apr-1)

So not only do the Pens play back-to-back on fewer occasions than the Flyers and Red Wings, but a huge chunk of their consecutive game came in October when the players have fresh legs.

I assigned these things point values (somewhat random). I also factored in where both teams play consecutively whereas I did not count in previous categories:

Opponent plays two consecutive road games: +2

Opponent plays two consecutive games (away-home, home-away, home-home): +1

Team plays two consecutive road games: -2

Team plays two consecutive games (away-home, home-away, home-home): -1

Penguins: +10

Flyers: +1

Red Wings: +13

Blackhawks: Even

I think reader "I Heart Pat" is attempting to find correlations between teams that share buildings. So far, Flyers (Sixers) and Blackhawks (Bulls) appear to be in the same boat.

Small sample size, but that looks pretty lopsided.

The NHL seriously dislikes the Flyers, loves the Penguins, or both

The puck is in the net, with space between the puck and the goal line, yet it is ruled no goal. The puck is circled in yellow. Terrible officiating. This would have put the Pens in a 3-goal deficit heading into the final period, and God forbid the Penguins get blown out at home.

More awful officiating

This was a 3rd down play. Brown was down by contact past the 29 yard line, which would have been a first down. The ref decided to spot ot at the 28, for no reason, and Reid did not challenge. The Birds had to punt it away and the Broncos got the tying score on the ensuing possession. Just terrible officiating today.

It's easier to sack the QB when you're offsides

This is the play where McNabb fumbled. The end who sacked him is clearly lined up offsides. I seriously do not understand what the linesmen are watching before the snap. The NFL loves to enact all these rules to "protect the QB," yet they refuse to enforce the neutral zone infraction, which would obviously cut down on QB sacks. Terrible, Mr. Goodell.

John Fox is dumb

The Eagles have an outside chance to earn a bye in the NFC. They need the Vikings to lose twice in their last three games, and they are currently beating the Panthers 7-6 at halftime. With 4 seconds left in the 2nd quarter, John Fox sent his field goal unit out to attempt a 47-yard FG. John Kasay made the field goal, but the play was whistled dead due to a false start.

Instead of attempting a 52-yard field goal, which is about a coin-flip for NFL kickers, Fox decided to opt for the high-percentage 35-yard Hail Mary attempt. Shockingly, it fell incomplete and the score stayed 7-6.

John Kasay is 37-74 on 50+ yard FG attempts, exactly 50%. Also, I'd imagine that the majority of those misses came from longer than 52 yards. For Fox to have made the correct decision, the Hail Mary pass should have to be completed about 25% of the time. I'm not even sure that a Hail Mary from the 35 is completed 5% of the time.

If the Panthers lose a close game and the Eagles finish a game behind the Vikings, you can thank Fox for the Eagles' having to play a first-round game.

Done deal?

610 WIP just announced the deal as final although no other sources that I have seen have officially announced that Halladay will in fact, be on his way to Philly. Many people have voiced their displeasure about giving up Lee. This is what you can tell them.

1) Halladay is a better pitcher. It is close in a sense, but he is significantly better. Use almost any stat you want to prove this

2) The deal proposed mid-season went like this:

Phillies give: J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor

Phillies get: Roy Halladay

End result: Cliff Lee does not pitch for the Phillies. Phils get Halladay and give up 2 "maybe" and one "1/2-maybe". They get no "maybes" in return.

Current deal proposed:

Phillies give: Cliff Lee, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnaud

Phillies get: Roy Halladay, Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies

End result: Cliff Lee does not pitch for the Phillies. They get Roy Halladay and give up 3 "maybes" and get 2 "maybes" in return. A net result of -1 "maybe". J.A. Happ remains a Phillie

3) No matter how good the minor leaguers perform in the Busch league, there is no telling how it will unfold if/when they make it to the big leagues.

This is how I see the deal working out irregardless of the Mariners: The Phillies get more than they would have had they done the deal mid-season, and the Blue Jays get less.

All signs point to yes.

Hot Stove

I will be the first person to tell you that I hate when people speculate at trades - especially when they announce them before they happen - but the recent news has me feeling anxious. Reports have Roy Halladay coming to the Phillies, possibly in exchange for Cliff Lee in a three-team deal. I think I'm more excited about the idea of the Phillies' just making a move like this than I am that the team would be significantly better.

I cannot even contemplate how this move will go over with the city. So many people are in love with Lee after his outstanding post season (and the majority of his time here after the trade), and I am one of them. He pitched GREAT, and he's a VERY solid major league pitcher. It would be very difficult to explain (to the people who need explaining) that Halladay is a better pitcher. He has significantly better meaningful numbers (I know it's hard to believe) than Cliff Lee for his career. His salary is going to be large, and he is 2 years older. I think the difference in quality (over a longer time period) outweighs these negatives, and this is why I support this move if it happens.

No doubt will it be a tough move personnel-wise because Cliff Lee was perfect for this team. I'll be interested to see how this pans out, and who else will be involved in the deal.

Game over

More NFL incompetence

At this point, there's really nothing to say. The Eagles should have had a 50-yard FG at the end of the half, and there should have been about 4 seconds on the clock. Vick scored with 12 seconds left, and they ran it to 10. The fumble recovery occurred at 2 seconds left, and it ran to zero.

But Goodell will tweak the celebration rules before the clock operators.

ESPN is confused

Current headline on ESPN's website: "Irish nab Kelly"

Unless they are trying to use as few characters as possible to break a news story, it's evident that ESPN doesn't care about its headlines.

"nab [næb]

vb nabs, nabbing, nabbed (tr) Informal

1. to arrest

2. to catch (someone) in wrongdoing

3. to seize suddenly; snatch

[perhaps of Scandinavian origin; compare Danish nappe, Swedish nappa to snatch. See kidnap]"

Notre Dame did not arrest Brian Kelly, catch him in wrong-doing, or seize him suddenly. It was evident a few days ago who they would hire. His name was in headlines before Planet Cholesterol was dismissed. ESPN is either lazy or confused, but since I'm a nice guy I'll claim the latter.

Weird hockey rules

Dan Carcillo just racked up a LOT of penalty minutes (2 minors, 1 major, 1 - 10 minute misconduct, and 1 game misconduct). Along with some questionable calls (the Capital dropped his gloves and didn't get a penalty). Anyway, it sent me to the rulebook to look up some things. I came across this beauty.

47.11 Instigator - An instigator of an altercation shall be a player or goalkeeper who by his actions or demeanor demonstrates any/some of the following criteria: distance traveled; gloves off first; first punch thrown; menacing attitude or posture; verbal instigation or threats; conduct in retaliation to a prior game (or season) incident; obvious retribution for a previous incident in the game or season.....

This rule is ridiculous. By this definition, every fight will have an instigator. I don't think I have ever seen gloves off at exactly the same moment in time, both players throw a punch at the exact same time, or cowering attitude/posture. Someone must always drop the gloves first, and someone probably asks something along the lines of, "you wanna go?" before every fight due to the penalty of forcing a fight (not making sure it is mutual).

Also, this one:

47.6 Face Protection - If a player penalized as an instigator of an altercation is wearing a face shield (including a goalkeeper), he shall be assessed an additional unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.

Should the player (including a goalkeeper) who instigates the fight be wearing a face shield, but removes it before instigating the altercation, the additional unsportsmanlike conduct penalty shall not apply.

So while the league is interested in protecting players, they coerce you into getting more penalty minutes if you wear a visor.

P.S. I miss John Stevens

Placido Polanco: The new third baseman

Placido Polanco has signed a 3-year, 18 million dollar contract with the Phillies. He will replace Pedro Feliz at third base.

Polanco is a fantastic second baseman, but he hasn't played third base since 2005. Feliz was above-average defensively, so Polanco will probably either equal Feliz's ability or become a slight downgrade. However, Polanco is more mobile and his range may exceed that of Feliz. The defensive difference between the two is likely small.

Offensively, however, Polanco is vastly superior to Feliz, which makes this decision a no-brainer. Polanco has a career .348 OBP, and he has never had a full season below the .330 mark. Feliz, on the other hand, has a .293 OBP and never had a full season over the .308 mark. Their SLG% are a wash (Feliz .422; Polanco .414).

Neither Feliz nor Polanco walk much at all. The difference between the two is their strikeout rate. Feliz strikes out 15% of his plate appearances, while Polanco strikes out at a 6% rate.

This seems to be a perfect move for the Phils, but I am concerned as to where he will be placed in the lineup. Jayson Stark has this to say:

"The Phillies declined the option on third baseman Pedro Feliz last month to see if they could find a righthanded-hitting offensive upgrade who could help balance their left-leaning lineup. They envision Polanco hitting second behind Jimmy Rollins, a move that would drop Shane Victorino lower in the order."

That would be bad. Rollins' career OBP is much lower than both Polanco's and Victorino's. My vote is Victorino as a lead-off man and Polanco in the two-hole, while Rollins swings away from the 7-spot. Regardless of the lineup, however, the Phils have improved pretty significantly.

Phillies upgrade from Paul Bako

The Phillies have signed Brian Schneider to be their backup catcher for 2010. Like Paul Bako, Schneider is a lefty hitter. Unlike Bako, Schneider is competent at the plate. He has a .323 OBP for his career, which is more than enough for a backup catcher. Bako's number is .305. Schneider is also a very good defensive catcher.

Good signing for the Phils.